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Geneticists on GMO wheat

I previously noted some skepticism about GMO wheat by a prominent wheat geneticist.  Thus, I was interested to see this piece in The Scientist that included several interesting observations from other wheat geneticists.  

One of the the things that the story makes clear is that many traits of interest (in this particular story, the trait happens to be resistance to stem rust - a disease that can result in significant yield loss) can often be eventually achieved through traditional breeding or through newer "non GMO" molecular techniques including cloning and cisgenic technology (like transgenic technologies but involves moving genes within a species). The main problem with developing rust-resistant varieties using traditional breeding techniques is lost time:

But using traditional breeding strategies to pyramid resistance genes is time-consuming. In a typical wheat-breeding program, “from the first cross to the release of a variety, it’s about eight to nine years,” says James Anderson, the head of the wheat-breeding program at the University of Minnesota. And that’s just to develop a strain that carries one gene of interest. To stack three, four, or even five rust-resistance genes can add several more years to that time line. At CIMMYT, Singh and his colleagues have been working for nearly a decade to breed varieties that have multiple adult resistance genes. 

So, why not use biotechnology?  The main barrier to the use of technologies that happen to fall under the "GMO" umbrella isn't necessarily technological know-how but potential public opposition and regulatory costs - something I mentioned in my previous post:

One of the huge costs is that related to regulatory burden associated with creating and commercializing seeds made with GM technologies relative to other breeding technologies.  That sounds to me like good motivation to work on attempts to bring down the regulatory costs associated with genetic engineering.  It also suggests a need to work on public opposition with scientific communication on the health and environmental aspects of genetic engineering.  It also makes me wonder if activist pressures might eventually bring molecular breeding techniques under a similar regulatory umbrella that now drives up the cost of commercializing GM.

Here are a couple choice quotes from the article that highlight the regulatory costs

One way to hasten the development of a long-lasting stem rust–resistant wheat variety is to engineer plants’ DNA to carry resistance genes, creating what are known as genetically modified (GM) crops. But at many of the facilities that develop wheat varieties—primarily led by academic breeding groups, in contrast to the commercial domination of corn and soybean development—such transgenic approaches are taboo, as public opposition, regulatory expenses, and genetic complexity have kept wheat transgenics off the market. “We could do millions of things [with transgenics],” says Jorge Dubcovsky, a wheat geneticist and breeder at the University of California, Davis, “but we have our hands tied.”

and

But the prospect of GM wheat faces additional hurdles. Because the crop is regionally idiosyncratic—farmers in South Dakota use different varieties than those in Washington or Kansas, for instance—it is not possible to develop a single blockbuster variety that can be sold across the country. As a result, unlike corn and soybeans, which are primarily sold by agribusiness corporations, new wheat varieties for local farmers have primarily come from academic breeders, and universities can rarely afford the expense of regulatory review by the multiple government agencies that approve GM crops. “In the public sector, we cannot release transgenics because we cannot afford the regulatory costs,” says Dubcovsky.

The last quote highlights two important issues.  One is the interesting political economy created by the localized nature wheat breeding.  Many new wheat varieties have historically been released by public Land-Grant Universities, and producers in the respective states have, in some cases, come to expect such new varieties to be free (or at least inexpensive) based on the premise that they were developed using taxpayer dollars.  Wheat producers in many states, presumably, don't want to have to buy seed from large agro-chemical companies, and that can create barriers to Universities partnering with such companies to commercialize traits.  That leads to the second issue highlighted in the quote, which is the fact that many universities don't have the resources or the regulatory know-how to attain approval and commercialize a new variety.  Almost paradoxically, those who have been calling for increased regulatory burden for GMOs have handed large agro-chemical companies a ticket to increased market power.  

Here's what I had to say about that in the Food Police

 But, who benefits from stricter regulations that make it harder to enter the market for biotech seeds?  It certainly isn’t the small start-up firms [or universities] trying to break down entry barriers to get their new invention on the market.  Rather, it’s the establish behemoths who have teams of lawyers and lobbyists who can absorb the regulatory costs that keep out their smaller competitors. Adding regulatory hurdles hasn’t dampened Monsanto’s market power, it has enhanced it. 

They key isn't to try to keep large agribusinesses out of the seed and biotech market, but rather to make sure that the barriers to entry are low enough that anybody can compete with them.

 

 

Last Week

Last week I failed to offer up any new blog posts, but the following picture should provide ample explanation.

My family and I had the pleasure of visiting Kauai and I found it a bit ironic that just a few miles down from the large facilities of Dow Agrosciences and of Dupont-Pioneer, many local cars possessed bumper stickers like the following:

Skepticism over potential benefits of GMO wheat

My colleague (and chief wheat breeder) at Oklahoma State University was recently interviewed by Ag Journal, and he expressed reservations about GMO wheat.  

A few snippets:

“Among consumers, there are a lot of myths and fallacies being spread, but I think they are also being spread on the science side,” said Brett Carver, chief wheat breeder at Oklahoma State University. “There’ve been some promises made about GM wheat that I don’t think are true or are being overstated.”

His main complaint is the way wheat has been portrayed as lagging behind other crops with the blame often placed on a lack of genetic modification. Carver is currently helping to edit a technical book that follows advancements in 16 major field crops and says studies show wheat is more than holding its own.

Carver contends changing climate trends in the last 25 years have benefited corn and beans more than GM seed development has. Most of the yield gains breeders have achieved are the result of taking advantage of a longer growing season and the ability to plant earlier in the spring, he said

The wheat "lagging behind" argument is one that appeared in my co-authored New York Times editorial on the subject.  To be sure this is a complicated issue and there are many factors at play including climate, government policies (particularly ethanol policies), drought, falling cattle inventory, interest rates, and technological advancement (including biotechnology), just to name a few.  Carver is right that the trend is not due solely (or perhaps even mainly) to biotechnology.  But, might it be one small part of the picture?

One should probably be careful about comparing yield of apples and oranges (or wheat and corn).  So, let's move away from discussions about yield, and look at farmer planting decisions. What do farmers decide to do with their land. The data are pretty clear that acreage allocations have moved against wheat over the past decade.  Here, for example, is USDA-NASS data on the number of acres planted to wheat since the mid 1990s (when GE corn and soy came on the market).

To look at it a bit differently, here is the % of planted acres in Oklahoma allocated to wheat over the past 10 years (this is the wheat % out of other major crops that include canola, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat).

 

Some of this change is due to government policies.  Some may be due to climate change.  Some may be due to changes relative prices.  Some may be do falling cattle numbers (a lot of the wheat in OK is planted to feed stocker cattle).  But, some may also be due to differences in seed technologies available and benefits they provide beyond yield.  As the story indicates:

the most common application of GM technology so far — herbicide resistance — “protects rather than increases” yields, Carver noted

I agree, it is more than just about yield.  Convenience, risk reduction, and time saved also factor into planting decisions, and I suspect producers are willing to pay something for yield protection.   

Ultimately, I don't think "competitive disadvantage" of wheat (to the extent one exists) is the key reason to think about GMO wheat.  After all, if a farmer doesn't allocate their ground to wheat, they're likely to allocate it to a different crop (in recent years in Oklahoma that has been Canola - GMO and non-GMO).  What we care about are not crops but farmers and consumers.

Carver discusses a lot of interesting developments in wheat breeding and genetics that are worth pursing (do see the whole article).   Many of these are likely to bring about farmer and consumer benefits.  

Carver's chief complaint with biotechnology (aside from over-sold benefits) seems to be the following:

it represents “the most expensive tool in the toolbox.”

“I do want to be able to use the technology, but I want to use it responsibly,” Carver said. “What that means is, if I use it, I’m going to use it as a last resort. Why? Because of cost and because of public opposition.”

One of the huge costs is that related to regulatory burden associated with creating and commercializing seeds made with GM technologies relative to other breeding technologies.  That sounds to me like good motivation to work on attempts to bring down the regulatory costs associated with genetic engineering.  It also suggests a need to work on public opposition with scientific communication on the health and environmental aspects of genetic engineering.  It also makes me wonder if activist pressures might eventually bring molecular breeding techniques under a similar regulatory umbrella that now drives up the cost of commercializing GM.

Ultimately, Carver may be right.  New molecular breeding technologies and other advancements may circumvent the need for "GMOs" - at least as they're currently defined by the public and by regulators - and these advancements may indeed be less costly and invite less public scorn.  I'm certainly proud to work at a University with scientists like Carver working on those issues. 

In the end, however, I find it hard to see why we would want to block farmers' access to biotechnology.  If a company (or University) can create and commercialize a GMO wheat (and I suspect that day isn't far off, as there are many in development), farmers will have the choice to decide for themselves whether the promise has been oversold.  Clearly, the vast majority of corn, soybean, and cotton farmers believe enough in the merits of GMOs to pay a premium for them.  Maybe wheat farmers will have a different experience, and GMO wheat will fail the market test.  We'll never know until one is introduced.    

GMO bans and labels

It appears that voters in Jackson county Oregon have passed a ballot measure that would ban GMOs in the county.  

Much of the discussion by supporters of the ban leading up to the vote focused on GMOs "contaminating" organic crops.  But, that really doesn't make any sense because organic is a labeling scheme based on process not outcomes.  Just because an organic-labeled food was found to have synthetic pesticide residue or (heaven forbid!) trace elements of GMOs, that doesn't make it non-organic as long as the producers followed organic rules and procedures.  

I suspect the outcome will embolden supporters of mandatory GMO labeling laws and will speed the efforts of GMO advocates seeking some kind of over-riding national labeling law (which is unlikely to require mandatory GMO labels).  

At the same time, there seems to be growing acceptance and acknowledgements of the benefits and safety of biotechnology by the mainstream media and by prominent food writers.  Mark Bittman's recent writing is one prominent example.    

In that vein, I noticed this recent piece in Slate by the food writer and historian, James McWilliams on GMO labels.  You'll see a quote from me about some of the pseudo science that's sometimes used to promote such labels, but McWilliams mainly focuses on the potential costs of such labels:

It’s certainly possible that food will be reorganized into three general tiers—GMO, non-GMO, and organic—with non-GMO food moving toward the more expensive organic option while GMOs, which will be seen as less desirable, drop in price.

However it happens, a cost-free label is a happy thought. But until the label becomes the law, and until consumers are set free to cast their votes in the aisles of the marketplace, we’ll have little more to go on than tea leaves. And until they are genetically modified to be more accurate, I’d prepare to pay more for food.

Pollan and Bittman on GMOs

A good passage by Keith Kloor on the subtle shift by some in the "food movement" on GMOs:

As I have said to Lynas, this kind of turnabout owes not so much to discovering science but more to unshackling oneself from a fixed ideological and political mindset. You can’t discover science–or honestly assess it–until you are open to it. The problem for celebrity food writers like Bittman and Michael Pollan, who is also struggling to reconcile the actual science on biotechnology with his worldview, is that their personal brands are closely identified with a food movement that has gone off the rails on GMOs. The labeling campaign is driven by manufactured fear of genetically modified foods, a fear that both Pollan and Bittman and like-minded allies have enabled.

Kloor argues that 

Now that this train has left the station, there is no calling it back, as Bittman seems to be suggesting in his NYT column.

There may be no calling it back but I suppose we should at least celebrate the fact that celebrity foodies aren't actively at the engine anymore.  Now if I can just persuade Bittman and Pollan on the science and economics that conflict with some of their other pet food causes (including some of the nonsense Bittman spread about organics in the same column where he admits the safety of GMOs) . . .