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NYT on Academics and Commodity Speculation Research

The New York Times ran a piece a couple days ago entitled "Academics Who Defend Wall St. Reap Reward."  Two professors specifically mentioned are the economists Craig Pirrong and Scott Irwin.  The piece is long on innuendo and short on substance.  The writer, Kocieniewski, leaves the impression of wrongdoing by Pirrong or Irwin (and judging by the comments on the article, he got his intended effect) but the article never actually details what was so nefarious.

If their research on commodity speculation is flawed, then I would have expected some discussion of how it was flawed and some linkage of how a flow of money led to the flawed conclusion.  But there is no such argument in the piece.  I've read several of Irwin's papers on the issue. Most have been co-authored and they've been published in several diferent peer reviewed academic journals.  Thus, Kocieniewski's critique seems to be an indictment not only of Irwin but of his co-authors, the anonymous peer-reviewers, the journal editors, and any other economist out there who could (but has not) published results showing that Irwin et al.'s research on commodity speculation is wrong.   Or, could it be that Kocieniewski doesn't like the findings and resorts to ad hominem attacks?

I've known Irwin for several years.  He helps run farmdocdaily, one of the most timely, unbiased sources for information on the economics of production agriculture one can find.  He is a prolific researcher working on some of the most interesting (and sometimes controversial) issues in agricultural markets. He is a fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA), and sat on that association's board just prior to my term on the board.  The AAEA board recently passed a disclosure policy for its journals, and if memory serves me correct, Irwin was fully in support. Indeed, I've personally seen an Irwin presentation where he fully disclosed real or perceived conflicts of interest even when it wasn't required or expected that he do so.  As with any scientific investigation, it is possible that Irwin's conclusions about the results of commodity speculation are wrong, but the New York Times article doesn't offer any substantive argument to that effect.  

Here are a few other reactions on the story.

Michael Roberts at Greed, Green, and Grains:

The story is most notable for what it lacks: how, exactly, are the various companies distorting markets in a way that hurts consumers and or producers?  Inside Job describes the shady business of securities backed by stated-income mortgages, how Goldman Sachs was shorting the products it was selling to clients, etc.  We can see that there were shady business dealings and how they probably helped to fuel the real estate bubble.  So, where's the real underlying story in commodity market trading?

I don't think this story measures up to the New York Times' standard.  It's sad, because there might actually be a story here, but it would require a lot more legwork by Kocieniewski   That story, however, is probably a bit less salacious than what Kocieniewski was shooting for.

Felix Salmon has a long post on the subject at Reuters.  Here is one snippet.

But here’s the thing: for this kind of article to carry any weight, it has to demonstrate the mendacity or venality of the academics in question — and, ideally, those academics should have a high-profile reputation which deserves to be tarnished.

Which is why David Kocieniewski’s article about Craig Pirrong and Scott Irwin this weekend is such a disappointment. It’s currently doing very well on the NYT’s most-emailed list, but it’s easy to guess who’s doing the emailing: people who love to hate Wall Street, and who will use just about any possible excuse for doing so. Because in this case Kocieniewski has missed the mark. Neither Pirrong or Irwin is mendacious or venal, and indeed it’s the NYT which seems to be stretching the facts well past their natural breaking point.

Peter Klein:

Basically, the reporter dislikes speculation (which he clearly doesn’t understand), so he assumes any expert with a different view must be a hired gun for various commodity-market firms and groups. The result is a preposterous article riddled with “jaw-on-the-floor” errors, mendaciously edited so the unfounded accusations come first, and the self-contradictions revealed only at the end of the piece. (E.g., the professors are paid consultants for these groups — oh, but they say the opposite of what these groups want, and are actually paid to work on entirely different things.)

On his blog, Pirrong responds to the NYT piece about him.  Among the many  details the NYT story failed to mention (such as the fact that Pirrong has testified against Wall Street on many occasions), I found this the most interesting:

First, there are no coincidences, comrades. The NY Times has been Tiger Beat effusive in its praise for Gary Gensler of the CFTC.  This piece attacking two of the most prominent academic critics of Gensler’s efforts to impose a speculative position limits rule comes out days after the Commission approved a new version of the rule, and is in the midst of the comment period leading up to the formulation of a final rule.  Gensler fought for this rule for 5 years, and he views it as an important part of his legacy.  That is, there is a clear political agenda at work here: to kneecap those who have the audacity to oppose the regulatory agenda of Gensler and his media acolytes.

Poor Reporting on GMOs

As if to prove that aversion to food technologies is bipartisan, a segment of the Carol Alt show on the Fox News Channel ran one of the most biased, one-sided stories on biotechnology that I've seen on a major media outlet in some time.  On the show, which aired yesterday (this was apparently re-aired from the initial showing a couple months ago), the host unquestioningly accepted every assertion thrown out from her guest Max Goldberg.  The host never reveals that Goldberg is a major organic food advocate, a major supporter of GMO labeling, and a vocal critic of GMOs (e.g., see here, here, or here).

I think one can reasonably disagree over the topic of mandatory labeling of GMOs, but to present such a one-sided view of the science surrounding the topic is irresponsible journalism and a disservice to the audience.  

 

A few points that should have been raised:

  • Most of the studies showing aversive effects of GMOs in animal studies have been roundly criticized by reputable scientists (here is one blogger's criticism of a previously Fox News story which also failed to mention this).  Here is my own critique of one such study.
  • Numerous high-quality studies based on animal feeding trials show NO effect of feeding GMOs. 
  • Mentioning that countries around the world have GMO labeling policies is a red herring unless one also discusses how those countries enforce those policies while also mentioning that most, including the EU, has actually approved many GMO varieties for cultivation.
  • Where are the mentions of all the major scientific organizations positions on safety of GMOs or their positions on GMO labeling?  Say, the National Academy of Science? Or the American Medical Association?  Or the World Health Organization?
  • It is totally irresponsible to say that 90% of people want GMO labeling when less than half the voters in California and now Washington failed to vote in favor of GMO labeling.
  • Biotechnology does NOT just mean pesticide resistance as Goldberg asserts.  How about golden rice?  Or high-oleic soybeans? Or bio-fortified cassava? Or non-browning apples? 

Clearly, this story was anything but "fair and balanced."  

John Stossel had a guest on his show on the Fox Business Network that aired some similar views as Goldgerg, but at least Stossel had me on to provide some perspective.

The Cost of Corn in Meat

I recently ran across this publication from the USDA-Economic Research Service back in 2008.  The piece, written by Ephraim Leibtag, is mainly about the high costs of corn at the time (they subsequently went much higher), and the potential impacts on the cost of food.

That publication had a little back of the envelope calculation that I found very interesting, as it relates to the argument that meat production is wasteful - a topic I've discussed before.

Here is Leibtag:

To avoid downplaying potential impacts, this analysis uses upper-bound conversion estimates of 7 pounds of corn to produce 1 pound of beef, 6.5 pounds of corn to produce 1 pound of pork, and 2.6 pounds of corn to produce 1 pound of chicken.  Using these ratios and data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a simple passthrough model provides estimates of the expected increase in meat prices given the higher corn prices. The logic of this model is illustrated by an example using chicken prices. Over the past 20 years, the average price of a bushel of corn in the U.S. has been $2.28, implying that a pound of chicken at the retail level uses 8 cents worth of corn, or about 4 percent of the $2.05 average retail price for chicken breasts. 

I don't know about you, but 8 cents doesn't seem like a lot.  If that corn is "wasted" (I've previously argued that "waste" is the wrong word here), that's not much waste.

I don't know exactly how Leibtag made his calculation, but I'll make an even cruder one using current figures.  The price of corn today is around $4.15/bushel.  There are 56lbs in a bushel, so corn costs $0.074/lb.  So, if a steer requires 7 lbs of corn to make 1 lb of beef, then the cost of the corn in a pound of beef is: $0.074*7 = $0.519.  The retail price of beef today is around $5/lb, so about 10.3% of the retail price of beef is feed corn.  That means about 90% of the retail price of beef is due to other stuff.  

Similar calculations show that for a pound of pork $0.48 of the retail cost is due to corn and for chicken it is $0.19 (this is higher than Leitbag's numbers because, among other things, the cost of corn today is much higher and because my calculation also underestimates the costs of feed in a pound of retail product because it doesn't take into account the ability of farmers to substitute toward cheaper feeds).  Given retail prices of for pork and chicken are $3.8/lb and $2/lb, that means that 12.8% and 9.9% of the retail prices of pork and chicken.  

So, the vast majority of the cost of meat - around 90% - is due to non-feed factors.  

Sometimes a little context is useful in these debates.