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Links on the Economics of GMOs

Since my piece with Henry Miller on biotech wheat appeared in the New York Times, I've had several requests for good sources on the economics of agricultural biotechnology.  Here are a few.

1) Agricultural biotechnology: the Promise and Prospects of Genetically Modified Crops in the Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2014 by Barrows, Sexton, and Zilberman

2) The Economics of Genetically Modified Crops in 2009 in the Annual Review of Resource Economics by Matin Qaim 

3) The USDA Economic Research Service has several good papers.

In particular, see The First Decade of Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States

4) A book chapter on Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Food by yours truly in 2011

Is GMO Aversion a Left-Wing Phenomenon?

Amy Harmon recently had another excellent story on GMOs in the New York Times - focusing particularly on Papayas in Hawaii.

The story had the following passage:

Scientists, who have come to rely on liberals in political battles over stem-cell research, climate change and the teaching of evolution, have been dismayed to find themselves at odds with their traditional allies on this issue. Some compare the hostility to G.M.O.s to the rejection of climate-change science, except with liberal opponents instead of conservative ones.

From time to time, I've received some push back on some of the claims in my book, The Food Police, that food technology aversion, and willingness to regulate and restrict food technologies, has roots in the progressive left.  This is, of course, a generalization, and it doesn't not hold in every instance or for every person.  In this particular instance, it appears Harmon supports my claim.

One challenge is that many popular food books (by folks like Pollan, Moss, Warner, etc.) often refrain from specifically mentioning much about policy in the book.  But, then when your see these authors out on the interview circuit, they often talk a lot about policy and advocate all kinds of things.  This has the consequence of their writing appearing more centrist and “ideologically neutral” than is actually the case, and it also lets the authors off the hook by rarely putting them in a position of having to seriously defend their policy proposals.  

Indeed, I did an interview with Minnesota NPR on the Food Police, and I told the host that I didn’t so much disagree with Pollan’s eating advice as his policy advice regarding local foods.  The host (who had previously interviewed Pollan) told me something to the effect that Pollan doesn’t have policy proposals with regard to local food.  Well, that’s just false.  Yes, the Omnivore’s Dilemma or Cooked don’t specifically make policy suggestions, but all you have to do is listen to Pollan’s speeches or watch him on Bill Maher or Bill Moyers, and he has all kinds of policy suggestions (or just read some of his other writings, which plainly offer policy advice).  

It is a mistake to narrowly evaluate Pollan, Moss, et al. strictly based on what they write in their books without also viewing their writing in the larger context of the polices they advocate outside their books.  One also has to pay attention to what they choose to write about and what they choose to omit, and I would argue much of their writing errs by omission.   

I should note that several commentators on the web have chimed in on Harmon's claims of a link between left-leaning politics and aversion to GMO science.

Isaac Chotiner in the New Republic writes:

This story, a news piece which is also pleasingly one-sided (as the evidence demands), is appearing in the most important liberal publication in the country. The liberals who rant about genetically modified food may be pushing a point of view that is objectively as crazy as believing carbon emissions are not causing global warming; but liberals are still more likely (and willing) to get their news from places that tell them the truth. For conservatives who like to claim that Fox News is just a conservative version of The New York Times, ask yourselves this: Could you imagine Fox News running a big, one-sided piece that overwhelmingly discredited global warming deniers? Of course not. (The Times ran another excellent genetically modified food piece last year, also written by Amy Harmon.)

This probably goes some way in explaining why the modern Republican Party and conservative movement frequently seem so much crazier than mainstream liberalism. It's not that people are simply and inherently crazy; they also operate from within crazy bubbles, which is arguably just as dangerous. For this reason, my guess is that over time liberal opposition to genetic engineering will fade away. 

He makes a good point about this piece appearing in the NYT.  One distinction, which I think is missing, is the greater willingness of those on the left to regulate on economic issues, such as GMOs, than those on the right.  Stated differently, there are questions of science: what are the risks of climate change or eating GMOs.  And then there are more normative questions: given said risk, what should we do about it?  Even if the left and the right agreed on the level of risk, I don't think we should expect agreement on political action.  Some (but certainly not all) of the aversion to climate change policies on the right aren't a result of "global warming denialism" but rather skepticism about the government being able to efficiently solve the problem.  My studies on the issue don't reveal huge left-right differences in acceptance of GMOs per se, but rather the difference come in when one gets to the willingness to regulate GMOs.  

In a defense of GMOs from the European left, Leigh Phillips, makes some interesting observations about the politics of the situation:

In the end, what is going on here with opposition to genetic modification is the import into left-wing thinking of the logical fallacy of an ‘appeal to nature’ – the idea that what is found in nature is good and what is synthetic is bad. The origins of this scepticism of science, industry and progress can be found in romanticist counterrevolutionary thought that emerged in the 18th Century in opposition to republican movements. It is a cuckoo’s egg in the nest of the Left.

Transferred to human ecology, the inherent conservatism of this should quickly be revealed: Everything, or everyone – peasant, lord and king – has his place within the ‘natural order’. It is a defence of the status quo against the ‘unintended consequences’ of social programmes by interventionist governments. How alike are the arguments against genetic engineering and ‘social engineering’!

Poor Reporting on GMOs

As if to prove that aversion to food technologies is bipartisan, a segment of the Carol Alt show on the Fox News Channel ran one of the most biased, one-sided stories on biotechnology that I've seen on a major media outlet in some time.  On the show, which aired yesterday (this was apparently re-aired from the initial showing a couple months ago), the host unquestioningly accepted every assertion thrown out from her guest Max Goldberg.  The host never reveals that Goldberg is a major organic food advocate, a major supporter of GMO labeling, and a vocal critic of GMOs (e.g., see here, here, or here).

I think one can reasonably disagree over the topic of mandatory labeling of GMOs, but to present such a one-sided view of the science surrounding the topic is irresponsible journalism and a disservice to the audience.  

 

A few points that should have been raised:

  • Most of the studies showing aversive effects of GMOs in animal studies have been roundly criticized by reputable scientists (here is one blogger's criticism of a previously Fox News story which also failed to mention this).  Here is my own critique of one such study.
  • Numerous high-quality studies based on animal feeding trials show NO effect of feeding GMOs. 
  • Mentioning that countries around the world have GMO labeling policies is a red herring unless one also discusses how those countries enforce those policies while also mentioning that most, including the EU, has actually approved many GMO varieties for cultivation.
  • Where are the mentions of all the major scientific organizations positions on safety of GMOs or their positions on GMO labeling?  Say, the National Academy of Science? Or the American Medical Association?  Or the World Health Organization?
  • It is totally irresponsible to say that 90% of people want GMO labeling when less than half the voters in California and now Washington failed to vote in favor of GMO labeling.
  • Biotechnology does NOT just mean pesticide resistance as Goldberg asserts.  How about golden rice?  Or high-oleic soybeans? Or bio-fortified cassava? Or non-browning apples? 

Clearly, this story was anything but "fair and balanced."  

John Stossel had a guest on his show on the Fox Business Network that aired some similar views as Goldgerg, but at least Stossel had me on to provide some perspective.

People Are Willing to Listen in the Fight Over GMOs

Polls consistently reveal overwhelming support for the mandatory labeling of genetically engineered foods.  But, in two test states, California and most recently Washington, initiatives to require such labels have gone down in defeat when put to the voters.  

Supporters of the failed initiatives in Washington and California have vowed to fight on, and they are not alone.  Indeed, it appears the fight has just begun.  There are organizations in at least 37 states pushing for state-level ballot initiatives, and Connecticut and Maine have already passed mandatory labeling laws for genetically engineered foods, which will go into effect once other states nearby states pass similar laws.

The question is how the future labeling battles will play out

In states that allow initiatives, the California and Washington examples suggest that voters can be swayed away from supporting mandated labels.  For example, in what was pitted as a David versus Goliath battle, opponent of the Washington initiative raised a state record $22 million from the likes of the Grocery Manufacturers Association and Monsanto.  Yet, the carpetbagger label could equally apply to supporters of the initiative, who raised $7.7 million, 70 percent of which came from out-of-state mostly from natural and organic associations and retailers.       

A cynical view is that massive advertising turned consumers into pawns of Big Food at the ballot box.  A more charitable interpretation is that reasonable people, when confronted with the evidence of the safety of genetically engineered food and the potential benefits, changed their minds about an unfamiliar technology.

Biotech companies and food manufacturers have shown that the public can be persuaded about the merits of labels at the polls.  The question is whether food companies are willing to continue to spend such sums state-after-state.  Indeed, General Mills which donated millions in the fight against mandatory labeling initiatives in California and Washington has come out in favor of a national labeling standard for products produced without genetically modified ingredients (but not necessarily mandatory labeling).  Such a call is an effort to head-off future, costly state initiative battles, but it is far from clear that such a standard will alleviate the concerns expressed by mandatory labeling advocates.

One of the key issues in the debate about mandatory labeling surrounds the potential cost that would arise should mandatory labeling become law.  The ultimate impact hinges critically on how food manufacturers and retailers choose to respond to a mandatory label.  There is some chance manufactures will simply add the label indicating the presence of genetically engineered ingredients, most consumers will ignore it, and life will go on as usual.  Ironically, this is the outcome that label supporters suggest will happen.  There is also a chance manufacturers will avoid the label for fear of losing customers, the entire production system eschews biotechnology, food prices go up, and farmers are less profitable.  This is the outcome feared by opponents of mandatory labels, yet the choice of how to respond is, at least partially, in the manufacturers’ and retailers’ hands. 

The focus thus far has been on government mandated labels.  But as the actions of General Mills suggests, more attention is been devoted to the impacts that food and biotech companies might have on attitudes toward biotechnology more generally.   

The willingness of food and biotechnology companies to donate millions to change minds about mandatory labels could also be spent changing minds about the technology.  Spending by food and biotech companies in the ballot fights, while creating temporary victories, might ultimately be counterproductive.  Fighting the label feeds conspiracy theories and suggests that there is something to hide. 

Why not spend money educating consumers?

To be clear, the food companies were right to oppose the initiatives.  One should be careful about when the government can compel company speech.  A case could be made that mandated labels are appropriate when there are legitimate safety or health risks, for example transfats or nut content.  But, the best science shows no such worries for biotechnology. Moreover, by requiring a label, the government might well send a false signal that biotechnology is something to fear.  

It has become no longer acceptable for reputable journalists to repeat the scare tactics of GMO fear mongers.  More nuanced critics point to issues associated with market power, resistance, and gene flow.  These are reasonable conversations worth having.  So too are the conversations about the benefits already accruing from the adoption of biotechnology, such as lower food prices and reduced insecticide use, not to mention promising developments on the horizon such as engineered citrus varieties resident to a disease that is destroying the industry in Florida, drought tolerant crops, and developing-country staple foods engineered to contain micronutrients.

Biotechnology is not a panacea, but all tools should be on the table to sustainably meet the demands of a fast growing, hungry world.         

For now, food companies are not required to add labels indicating the presence of genetically engineered ingredients.  But, it might ultimately be in their best interest to do it voluntarily, and in a way that avoids the negative connotations implied by the labels that would have been mandated in state ballot initiatives.

Some day in the near future, after concerted efforts to educate the public and create consumer-oriented biotechnologies, we may see food companies clamoring to voluntarily add a label that proclaims: proudly made with biotechnology.

Don Boudreaux on GMO Labeling

I am sometimes surprised at the stances some libertarian-leaning folk take on food issues, particularly GMO labeling.  But, over at Cafe Hayek, Don Boudreaux responds to a question on the issue precisely as I'd anticipate. 

No.  I believe that there is no justification for such a requirement [mandatory labeling of GMOs].  An important reason why I oppose such a requirement is that there are no non-arbitrary criteria to guide even the best-intentioned government in determining which sorts of information-disclosure to mandate and which not to mandate.  The best practical rule is to allow competition among firms to determine which bits of information to disclose and how to disclose it.

Suppose (not unreasonably) that there are some consumers who would prefer not to buy foods harvested by ‘undocumented’ workers.  Should government then require suppliers of fruits and vegetables to disclose whether or not they take steps to ensure that all of their workers have official U.S. Government permission to work as farm laborers in America?  Suppose (not unreasonably) that some other consumers care about ‘gender equity’ in the workplace?  Should government then require that each supplier of fruits or vegetables disclose information about what proportion of its workforce is women?

Suppose (not unreasonably) that yet some other consumers care about ‘sexual-preference equity’ in the workplace?  Should government then require that each supplier of fruits or vegetables disclose information about what proportion of its workforce is gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgendered?  Suppose (not unreasonably) that some consumers care about the employment prospects of U.S. military veterans.  Should government then require that each supplier of fruits or vegetables disclose information about what proportion of its workforce is made up of people who once served in the U.S. military?  Suppose (not unreasonably) that some other consumers care deeply about ‘made in America.’  Should government then require that each supplier of fruits or vegetables disclose information about what proportion of its inputs were bought from American, as opposed to non-American, suppliers?