The danger of making public policy based on epidemiological studies

Scientific American recently ran an interesting story on antioxidants.  For a while, it seems, experts promoted antioxidants based on epidemiological studies that seemed to suggest they increased longevity.  It is a good thing these experts didn't convince policy makers to subsidize or mandated more vitamins and antioxidants in food years ago (although we do have mandated vitamin D milk and iodine in salt), only to discover this:

Vitamins Kill Epidemiological studies show that people who eat lots of fruits and vegetables, which are rich in vitamins and other antioxidants, tend to live longer and are less likely to develop cancer compared with those who do not.  So it seemed obvious that supplementing diet with antioxidants should lead to better health.  But the results of the most rigorously designed studies do not support that assumption.  Indeed, the evidence shows that some people who take certain supplements are actually more likely to develop life-threatening illnesses, such as lung cancer and heart disease.

There are many epidemiological studies showing correlations across people in the intake of one food (e.g., meat, chocolate, blueberries, wine) and some undesirable or desirable health outcome (e.g., cancer, heart disease, longevity, etc.).  But, it cannot be repeated enough: correlation is not causation.    

Assorted links

• A creative way to illustrate perceived risks
• A UK official proposes mandatory limits on sugar, salt, and fat in foods
• At least one person doesn't like the new FDA food safety rules
• Do readers of the New England Journal of Medicine favor regulation of sugar-sweetened beverages?
• Several interesting articles on effects of the Pink Slime controversy

Will Fat Taxes Kill You?

That's the tongue-in-cheek title of my article in Townhall.com.  Here are a couple excerpts:

 It is more than a little disconcerting, then, to learn that the mounting number of federal, state, and local policies aimed at slimming our waists may be misguided. The results from a careful literature review recently published in the Journal of the American Medical Association showed that people who are overweight and even a bit obese actually live longer than normal weight folk.

and

The pathologizing of extreme body types by public health professionals, pharmaceutical companies, and the federal government, for example by referring to obesity as an “epidemic”, has added insult to injury. And, it has licensed the actions of those who want to use the power of the government to restrict what we eat. Yet, if being overweight increases your lifespan, is it possible that government mandated fat taxes and soda bans may prematurely kill us?

and

But, if the overweight are living longer than the normal weight, where is the justification for public intervention to control our weight? Indeed, a study published last year in the Journal of Health Economics showed that health care expenditures are lower among overweight as compared to normal-weight men.

I go on to talk about the fallacy of using Medicare and Medicaid expenditures as justification for public intervention.  

Assorted Links

• Farmer Style (Gangnam Style Parody) (it's a bit corny, but I suspect if more of this sort of thing out there, production ag wouldn't get as much of the bad rap that it does).
• Country Fried Bacon.  That's gotta be good.
• Somehow I missed this op-ed in the NYTs on local foods from a couple years ago.  It hits many of the same points I've made on the topic in other writings.
• In his Forbes column, Henry Miller takes on Mark Bittman and his NYT column
• The D.C. zoning fight over fast food restaurants (video)
  
• A cowboy (and girl) give veganism a try

Can Behavioral Economics Combat Obesity?

Obesity is a serious health problem. This article demonstrates that using behavioral economics to guide regulations is both misguided and can be counterproductive to obese and nonobese citizens alike.

That's the conclusion of an article in Regulation by Michael Marlow and Sherzod Abdukadirov.  I have a whole chapter in the Food Police on precisely this topic.