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Some recent writings

A few pieces I've put out in the last week or two:

1) In Defense of Frankenfoods.  Milken Institute Review.  An excerpt:

While it is possible to be pro-biotechnology without being pro-Monsanto, such a nuanced position is difficult to maintain in the current atmosphere. It seems that many suffer from what might be called Monsanto Derangement Syndrome, buying into all sorts of conspiracy theories. Yet genetically engineered foods are no more synonymous with Monsanto than hamburgers are with McDonald’s. When anti-Monsanto became de facto anti-biotechnology, many left-leaning commentators chose to swim with the tide. Thus emerged a (justifiable) belief that many on the left were anti-science on the issue of biotechnology. In the words of journalist Keith Kloor (writing for Slate), opponents of genetically engineered food “are the climate skeptics of the left.” Although there is some truth to this observation, the political reality is more complex.

2) Consumer Acceptance of Controversial New Food Technologies: Causes and Roots of Controversies with Jutta Roosen and Andrea Bieberstein in Annual Review of Resource Economics. An excerpt: 

The dread/control framework may partly explain aversion to new food technologies, particularly in our modern society. In most developed countries, only a very small fraction of the population makes a living by farming. That many consumers today have little connection to and knowledge of modern production agriculture means that new practices adopted by farmers are likely to seem foreign, unknown, and—from the consumer’s perspective—uncontrollable (Campbell & Fitzgerald 2001, Gupta et al. 2011). It has been argued that many consumers have a “romantic” notion of farming (Thompson 1993) and that agricultural literacy is “too low” in the population (Pope 1990). Empirical research suggests that agricultural literacy is loweramong urban children than among rural children (Frick et al. 1995). Thus, when consumers become aware of a new technology—e.g., lean, fine-textured beef or Roundup Ready soybeans—it may be interpreted as a signal of dread and of unknown risk, which Slovic (1987) argues is most aversive and prone to
elicit public panic.

3) New Tool (FooDS) Identifies Consumers' Views on Food Safety with Susan Murray in Choices.  An excerpt:

Figure 4 plots the FooDS price expectations index for beef, pork, and chicken against the same-month price data from the BLS on ground chuck, all pork chops, and boneless chicken breasts. For the first two meats, the correlations—a statistical measure of association, with 1.00 being a perfect correlation—between price expectations and actual prices are 0.72 and 0.83, showing a high correspondence between consumer expectations and actual prices. The correlation for chicken, however, was only -0.26. This latter result likely arises because actual prices for beef and chicken have trended up over this time period while chicken prices have not. However, consumers do not differentiate much between meat categories in their price expectations; the correlations among price expectations for beef, pork, and chicken are all above 0.89.



Food Demand Survey (FooDS) - October 2014

The October edition of the Food Demand Survey is now out (prior releases and other details can be found here).

Relative to last month, there were small declines in willingness-to-pay (WTP) for most meat products except pork chops, which increase 8%.

While consumers continue to expect higher meat prices, inflationary expectations are less than last month, though higher than a year ago. Planned buying for all meat products rose in October relative to September, with the largest uptick in planned purchases for chicken.

There was more change in the measured "consumer values" this month compared to prior months.  There was a slight decrease in perceived importance of price, nutrition, animal 
welfare and origin, and a slight increase in perceived importance of safety, appearance, and naturalness. 

Two new ad hoc questions were added this month.  

The first question asked: “Which of the following is true of the last package of bacon you purchased? (check all that apply)” .  Over 44% of participants stated the label on the package of bacon purchased contained “none of the above”.  About 9% said they bought organic bacon; 13% said they bought “hormone free” bacon.  

These statistics likely paint an overly optimistic picture in terms of the market share of organic and no added hormones/antibiotics.  First, added growth hormones are not allowed in pork production.  Second, our analysis of recent scanner data spanning a representative sample of grocery stores in the US puts the dollar market shares of organic, “antibiotic free”, and “natural” bacon at only 2.6%, 1.9%, and 0.9%, respectively.  In general, the results speak to the propensity for people to give socially desirable answers on certain types of survey questions such as this.

Second, we asked about "Meatless Monday."  “Meatless Monday” is an international campaign that encourages consumers to refrain from eating meat one day a week for the purported purpose of improving health and the environment.  Various media outlets have made claims about the growing popularity of the movement, but firm statistics on the matter are sparse.  Thus, we asked the question: “Which of the following best describes your knowledge and involvement with ’Meatless Monday’?”   Respondents could pick one (and only one) of four answers.  The majority (51.6%) of consumers have never heard of “Meatless Monday”.  Over 80% (51.6%+31%=82.6%) have never participated in “Meatless Monday.”  Only 8.4% of participants stated they regularly participate in “Meatless Monday”.  In a separate question, about 4.7% of consumers indicated that they were vegetarian or vegan, so that leaves only (8.4%-4.7%)=3.7% of the population who regularly participants in Meatless Monday who aren’t already vegetarian or vegan.  

Addendum:  I had a reader question whether it makes sense to subtract the % vegetarian/vegan from the regular participants of meatless Monday.  In particular, someone can be a vegetarian, eat meatless on Monday, and still not identify as not participating (they might not have heard about the campaign or don't care about the campaign per se).

Should the government regulate unhealthy foods?

That was the question asked in a long piece by the Congressional Quarterly Researcher a few days ago.  I had several nice conversations with Robert Kiener, the author of the piece, and was pleased he included a few of my thoughts.  

The article had a page (pg. 833) with alternative viewpoints responding to the question: "should the government tax sugary soda?"  Writing in favor was Michael Jacobson with the Center for Science in the Public Interest.  Writing in opposition was yours truly.  Jacobson repeatedly refers to "big soda's" talking points, but my views are my own and I have no financial ties to the soda or sugar industries.  I began by writing:

Should the government tax sugared soda? It already does. Farm policies make U.S. sugar prices two to three times higher than elsewhere. Moreover, ethanol policies have led to a more than doubling of the price of high fructose corn syrup since 2005. Its no wonder that per capita sugar consumption has fallen precipitously over the last decade.

You can read the rest for my other thoughts.  

On the sugar policy issue, I'll note this paper just released by Beghin and Elobeid in the journal Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy on the effects of sugar policy.  They write on the effects of the removal of US sugar policy.  They estimate the removal of the sugar program would lead to a roughly 30% reduction in the US price of refined sugar.  They write: 

The removal of the sugar program would increase U.S. consumers’ welfare by $2.9 to $3.5 billion each year and generate a modest job creation of 17,000 to 20,000 new jobs in food manufacturing and related industries. Imports of sugar containing products would fall dramatically, especially confectioneries substituting for domestic inputs under the sugar program. Sugar imports would rise substantially to 5–6 million short tons raw sugar equivalent. World sugar price increases would be minor, equivalent to about 1 cent per pound.

The interesting dichotomy (dare I say, irony) is that the ~$3 billion in consumer benefits estimated from the above study come about because of lower sugar prices that would arise if US sugar policy were eliminated. But, it seems sugar price advocates think just the opposite: rising sugar prices will somehow benefit consumers.  We can't have it both ways.  Either falling sugar prices help or hurt consumers.  I don't know about you, but I prefer paying lower prices.