A quick follow-up on previous posts about the impact of meat processing plant slow-downs and shut-downs due to COVID-19. The USDA releases daily estimates of slaughter numbers (the data after March 31 are estimates, before that it is “actual”) . If these estimates hold, we’re processing about 24% fewer cattle and about 30% fewer hogs than the same time last year. All else equal, this will put downward pressure on cattle and hog prices and upward pressure on wholesale and retail meat prices. All, of course, isn’t equal. The upward pressure on meat prices will be dampened by the high amounts of pork in cold storage - roughly 20% more than this time last year.
Addendum (4/16/2020)
I’ve had a couple people point out that some of the dip in slaughter numbers might be due to the Easter holiday. In 2019, Easter was on April 21. For context, hog slaughter numbers on the Friday, Monday, and Tuesday surrounding Easter in 2019 were 431132, 327319, and 478008. For cattle, the respective figures in 2019 were: 114286, 113435, and 121216. Here are updated figures.
