I’ve written several times over the past couple years about what consumers are thinking about plant- and lab-based meat alternatives. What are farmer’s thoughts? This is not an unreasonable question: all these meat alternatives rely on agricultural inputs, whether it be pea- or soy-protein, or starches for fermentation processes.
My colleagues Jim Mintert and Michael Langemeier, through the Center for Commercial Agriculture at Purdue and with support from the the CME, run a monthly survey of farmers and produce the Ag Economy Barometer, which tracks farmer sentiment about the direction of the farm economy.
They just released results from the February 2021 survey results. They were gracious enough to include a few ad hoc questions I suggested on what farmers are thinking of the emergence of plant-based meat alternatives.
From the release:
“Interest in alternative protein sources has increased markedly over the last year. The February survey included several questions designed to learn more about producers’ perspectives on the possible impact of alternative proteins on U.S. agriculture. Responses suggest ag producers think alternatives to animal protein will make inroads in the total protein marketplace over the next five years. For example, over half (55%) of producers said they expect alternative protein sources to capture up to 10 percent of the combined market for animal and plant-based protein while a much smaller percentage, approximately 15%, said they expect plant-based alternatives to capture 10 percent or more of the total protein market. In a follow-up question, producers were asked what impact they would expect to see on farm income if plant-based alternatives to animal protein capture a relatively large market share (25%) of the total protein market. A majority of producers said they think the impact on farm income arising from alternative protein capturing a 25 percent share of the total protein market will be negative, with approximately four out of ten producers saying they would expect to see farm income decline by 10 percent or more under this scenario.”
That a majority of farmers perceive negative effects of alt-meats on the agricultural economy is consistent with: 1) the fact that some respondents are likely livestock producers, and 2) a recognition that the amount of corn and soy needed to produce alt-meats is lower than the amount needed to produce an equivalent amount of beef, pork, or chicken.
Nonetheless, the emergence of alt-meat alternatives create opportunities for some farmers who may grow inputs for these new products. We added a final question on this topic to the survey, and the results are below. The results show 62% of producers indicating an unwillingness to grow a crop used in production of plant-based alternatives under contract. That strikes me as high and may include a bit of cheap talk. It may also be that the question was worded too vaguely. What are the conditions of the contract? What are the price premiums? Farmer would want to know answers to these questions (and more) before switching to a new crop, and the lack of specificity may explain the low stated unwillingness to crop used in plant-based alternatives under contract.
