A year after the onset of the pandemic, research on impacts of COVID-19 on food and agricultural markets continues. Below are some links to some papers I’ve co-authored that have been recently released.
Unscrambling U.S. egg supply chains amid COVID-19 with Trey Malone and Aleks Schaefer in Food Policy.
Abstract: This article investigates how the shift from food-away-from-home and towards food-at-home at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the U.S. egg industry. We find that the pandemic increased retail and farm-gate prices for table eggs by approximately 141% and 182%, respectively. In contrast, prices for breaking stock eggs—which are primarily used in foodservice and restaurants—fell by 67%. On April 3, 2020, the FDA responded by issuing temporary exemptions from certain food safety standards for breaking stock egg producers seeking to sell into the retail table egg market. We find that this regulatory change rapidly pushed retail, farm-gate, and breaking stock prices towards their long-run pre-pandemic equilibrium dynamics. The pandemic reduced premiums for credence attributes, including cage-free, vegetarian-fed, and organic eggs, by as much as 34%. These premiums did not fully recover following the return to more “normal” price dynamics, possibly signaling that willingness-to-pay for animal welfare and environmental sustainability have fallen as consumers seek to meet basic needs during the pandemic. Finally, in spite of widespread claims of price gouging, we do not find that the pandemic (or the subsequent FDA regulatory changes) had a meaningful impact on the marketing margin for table eggs sold at grocery stores.
Meat Demand Monitor during COVID-19 with Glynn and Shauna Tonsor in Animals.
Abstract: Meat products represent a significant share of US consumer food expenditures. The COVID-19 pandemic directly impacted both demand and supply of US beef and pork products for a prolonged period, resulting in a myriad of economic impacts. The complex disruptions create significant challenges in isolating and inferring consumer-demand changes from lagged secondary data. Thus, we turn to novel household-level data from a continuous consumer tracking survey, the Meat Demand Monitor, launched in February 2020, just before the US pandemic. We find diverse impacts across US households related to “hoarding” behavior and financial confidence over the course of the pandemic. Combined, these insights extend our understanding of pandemic impacts on US consumers and provide a timely example of knowledge enabled by ongoing and targeted household-level data collection and analysis.
Food Consumption Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic with Lauren Chenarides, Carola Grebitus and Iryna Printezis in Agribusiness
Abstract: We conducted an online consumer survey in May 2020 in two major metropolitan areas in the United States to investigate food shopping behaviors and consumption during the pandemic lockdown caused by COVID‐19. The results of this study parallel many of the headlines in the popular press at the time. We found that about three‐quarters of respondents were simply buying the food they could get due to out of stock situations and about half the participants bought more food than usual. As a result of foodservice closures, consumers indicated purchasing more groceries than normal. Consumers attempted to avoid shopping in stores, relying heavily on grocery delivery and pick‐up services during the beginning of the pandemic when no clear rules were in place. Results show a 255% increase in the number of households that use grocery pickup as a shopping method and a 158% increase in households that utilize grocery delivery services. The spike in pickup and delivery program participation can be explained by consumers fearing COVID‐19 and feeling unsafe. Food consumption patterns for major food groups seemed to stay the same for the majority of participants, but a large share indicated that they had been snacking more since the beginning of the pandemic which was offset by a sharp decline in fast food consumption.
Who practices urban agriculture? An empirical analysis of participation before and during the COVID‐19 pandemic with Lauren Chenarides, Carola Grebitus and Iryna Printezis in Agribusiness
Abstract: Coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) disrupted the food system motivating discussions about moving from a dependence on long food supply channels toward shorter local supply channels, including urban agriculture. This study examines two central questions regarding the adoption of urban agriculture practices at the household level during the COVID‐19 pandemic: whether the outbreak of the novel coronavirus elicited participation in urban agriculture (e.g., community growing and home growing) and what are the characteristics of individuals who participate. To answer these questions, we conducted two online surveys in Phoenix, AZ, and Detroit, MI. The first round occurred during 2017 and the second during the lock‐down in 2020. Using bivariate probit models, we find that (1) considerably fewer individuals participate in urban agriculture at community gardens compared to at‐home gardening; (2) participation overall is lower in 2020 compared to 2017; and (3) respondents in Detroit practice urban agriculture more than respondents in Phoenix. Across both cities, our results suggest that the continuity of individuals' participation in growing food at community gardens and home is fragile. Not all characteristics that determined who participated in community gardens before COVID‐19 are determining the likelihood to participate during the pandemic. In addition, growing food at home before COVID‐19 was practiced by larger households and employed respondents, yet, during the pandemic, we find that home‐growing was more likely when children were in the household and households were smaller and younger (Detroit), and younger and more educated (Phoenix). These findings suggest that many urban households' food‐growing practices may not yet be mainstream and that other barriers may exist that inhibit households' participation.