Where are people most sensitive to changes in the price of bacon?

Whether trying to understand the impact of taxes, animal welfare regulations, or meat packing plant shutdowns, we need an elasticity of demand for pork. The elasticity of demand tell us how the quantity of pork consumers want to buy changes with the price of pork. Given the importance of such questions, it probably isn’t surprising to learn that there are many studies aiming to measure elasticties of demand. These studies typically focus on THE elasticity of demand for pork - a single aggregate number. However, these aggregate assessments likely mask a great deal of heterogeneity across markets and different products.

In some new research with Glynn Tonsor, done for the National Pork Board, we utilized grocery store scanner data from 51 U.S. retail markets for 6 different pork products to estimate 51*6 = 306 market- and product-specific own-price elasticity estimates. Our data also enables us to observe differences in consumer purchasing and spending patterns across the country.

There are so many interesting results, it’s hard to succinctly summarize. Here are a few highlights.

First, consider variation in bacon purchases across four markets over time. Of the four locations in the figure below, per-capita bacon purchases tend to be highest in Phoenix and lowest in LA (it is worth noting that bacon prices tend to be much higher in LA than Phoenix). The impact of the initial COVID-19 disruptions is also apparent in the data.

There is wide variation in price sensitivity across location and pork product. The figure below summarizes the distribution of price elasticities over the 51 markets for the six pork products

Want to know how your locale ranks in terms of consumption, prices, or elasticity? Check out the full report.

Concentration and Resiliency in the U.S. Meat Supply Chains

That’s the title of a new working paper I’ve co-authored with my Purdue colleague, Meilin Ma. In the wake of the COVID-19 related disruptions to meat packing, I shared my thoughts about resiliency and ran crude simulations to try to understand how resiliency related to market concentration. In this new paper, we incorporate some of these ideas into a formal economic model that we can use to answer a variety of questions about the relationship between industry structure and resiliency. The model also helps us understand some of the price dynamics surrounding the packing plant shutdowns.

Here is the abstract:

“Supply chains for many agricultural products have an hour-glass shape; in between a sizable number of farmers and consumers is a smaller number of processors. The concentrated nature of the meat processing sectors in the United States implies that disruption of the processing capacity of any one plant, from accident, weather, or as recently witnessed – worker illnesses from a pandemic – has the potential to lead to system-wide disruptions. We explore the extent to which a less concentrated meat processing sector would be less vulnerable to the risks of plant shutdowns. We calibrate an economic model to match the actual horizontal structure of the U.S. beef packing sector and conduct counter-factual simulations. With Cournot competition among heterogeneous packing plants, the model determines how industry output and producer and consumer welfare vary with the odds of exogenous plant shutdowns under different horizontal structures of the sector. We find that increasing odds of shutdown results in a widening of the farm-to-retail price spread even as packer profits fall, regardless of the market structure. Results indicate that the extent to which a more diffuse packing performs better in ensuing a given level of output, and thus food security, depends on the exogenous risk of shutdown and the level of output desired; no market structure dominates. These results help illustrate the consequences of policies and industry efforts aimed at increasing the resiliency of the food supply chain, and highlights the fact that there are no easy solutions to improve resiliency by changing market structure. ”

What do farmers think about plant-based meat alternatives?

I’ve written several times over the past couple years about what consumers are thinking about plant- and lab-based meat alternatives. What are farmer’s thoughts? This is not an unreasonable question: all these meat alternatives rely on agricultural inputs, whether it be pea- or soy-protein, or starches for fermentation processes.

My colleagues Jim Mintert and Michael Langemeier, through the Center for Commercial Agriculture at Purdue and with support from the the CME, run a monthly survey of farmers and produce the Ag Economy Barometer, which tracks farmer sentiment about the direction of the farm economy.

They just released results from the February 2021 survey results. They were gracious enough to include a few ad hoc questions I suggested on what farmers are thinking of the emergence of plant-based meat alternatives.

From the release:

“Interest in alternative protein sources has increased markedly over the last year. The February survey included several questions designed to learn more about producers’ perspectives on the possible impact of alternative proteins on U.S. agriculture. Responses suggest ag producers think alternatives to animal protein will make inroads in the total protein marketplace over the next five years. For example, over half (55%) of producers said they expect alternative protein sources to capture up to 10 percent of the combined market for animal and plant-based protein while a much smaller percentage, approximately 15%, said they expect plant-based alternatives to capture 10 percent or more of the total protein market. In a follow-up question, producers were asked what impact they would expect to see on farm income if plant-based alternatives to animal protein capture a relatively large market share (25%) of the total protein market. A majority of producers said they think the impact on farm income arising from alternative protein capturing a 25 percent share of the total protein market will be negative, with approximately four out of ten producers saying they would expect to see farm income decline by 10 percent or more under this scenario.”

That a majority of farmers perceive negative effects of alt-meats on the agricultural economy is consistent with: 1) the fact that some respondents are likely livestock producers, and 2) a recognition that the amount of corn and soy needed to produce alt-meats is lower than the amount needed to produce an equivalent amount of beef, pork, or chicken.

Nonetheless, the emergence of alt-meat alternatives create opportunities for some farmers who may grow inputs for these new products. We added a final question on this topic to the survey, and the results are below. The results show 62% of producers indicating an unwillingness to grow a crop used in production of plant-based alternatives under contract. That strikes me as high and may include a bit of cheap talk. It may also be that the question was worded too vaguely. What are the conditions of the contract? What are the price premiums? Farmer would want to know answers to these questions (and more) before switching to a new crop, and the lack of specificity may explain the low stated unwillingness to crop used in plant-based alternatives under contract.

Market Shares and Substitution Toward Plant Based Meat

In the past, I’ve discussed research we’ve conducted on consumer demand for emerging plant-based meat alternatives vs. traditional meat (e.g., see here or here). Today, I’m happy to link to a new, extensive study on the topic conducted with Glynn Tonsor and Ted Schroeder at Kansas State for the Cattlemen’s Beef Promotion and Research Board.

There are a lot of interesting results stemming from four different experiments and multiple questions asked, but I’ll hit just a few highlights. Firs, along a variety of dimensions, consumers’ perceptions of beef are favorable relative to consumers’ perceptions of plant-based alternatives. For example, here is one series of questions.

Second, if given a pair-wise choice between a beef burger and a Beyond Meat burger at the same price, roughly a quarter of consumers choose the Beyond Meat option. Interestingly, the choice wasn’t much affected by whether we provided nutrition facts panels, ingredient lists, or whether the beef burger was organic, as shown below.

Another experiment, framed in a foodservice environment, explored how choices for beef burgers were affected by a Beyond Meat alternative vs. a Chicken Wrap. Short story: Introducing a Beyond Meat alternative has about the same impact as introducing a Chicken Wrap.

Finally, we conducted some simulated shopping choices (in both food service and grocery framings) to estimate own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for plant-based alternatives and traditional meat options.

As it turns out this sort of analysis is quite timely. On February 2, Impossible announced a 20% price reduction. Here is our estimated demand elasticities for all consumers and segmented by people we classify as regular meat consumers vs. those wo do not regularly consume meat (those who classified their diet as vegetarian, vegan, flexitarian, or other).

As the table above shows, a 1% drop in Impossible Burger’s price would lead to a 0.14% reduction in purchases of Store-Brand ground beef at retail grocery (across all consumers). If we extrapolate that to a 20% decrease, that suggests the recently announced price change will lead to a a 2.8% decline in Store Brand ground beef.

This reduction comes almost entirely from consumers who are not regular meat eaters (cross-price elasticity of +0.26) vs regular meat consumers (cross-price elasticity of +0.05). In fact, within the regular meat consuming segment we would project the price drop in Impossible would result in nearly 3x the impact on Beyond Beef as Store Brand ground beef.

There is much, much more in the report. You can read the whole thing here.

Bacon Causes Cancer: Do Consumers Care?

That’s the title of a new working paper I’ve co-authored with Purdue PhD student, Xiaoyang He. The answer to the question is: “yes,” retail bacon prices and sales fell following the pronouncement that processed meat was classified as a carcinogen; however, we did not find the same for other processed meat categories, ham and sausage. Maybe all those headlines like “The great bacon freak-out” and “Eating just one slice of bacon a day linked to higher risk…” really served to focus people’s attention. Here is the abstract:

“In October 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) released a report classifying processed meat as a type 1 carcinogen. The report prompted headlines and attracted immediate public attention, but the economic impacts remain unknown. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of the IARC report on processed meat prices and purchases using retail scanner data from U.S. grocery stores. We compare changes in prices and sales of processed meat products to a constructed synthetic control group (using a convex combination of non-meat food products). We find a significant decrease in bacon prices and revenues in the wake of the IARC report release, but we find no evidence of a demand reduction in ham and sausage. At the same time, we find beef sales and revenue increased significantly after the report, while beef price significantly fell.”

That bacon prices fell alongside the volume sold is a clear signal that consumer demand for bacon fell as a result of the IARC report.

As we discuss in the paper, a key challenge with identifying the effects of the IARC report rests in constructing a counter-factual prediction of what would have happened to prices and sales of processed meat products had the IARC report not been released. We cannot use data from an unaffected location because the media reports were widely distributed across the U.S. Instead, we use statistical methods (the so-called synthetic control method) to identify alternative food products as controls. We describe the approach as follows:

“The synthetic control method sidesteps this problem and uses a combination of candidate controls instead. We Nielsen retail scanner data to determine the effect of the IARC report on processed meat markets. This data contains weekly information regarding sales, price, and revenue for processed meat categories as well as categories that are included in the synthetic control group. We use the data from 2014 to 2016, which includes approximately one year of data before and one year of data after IARC report released date. The post-IARC time period is long enough to determine, if any impact exists, how long it lasts.”

In essence we use the the estimated relationship among dozens of possible grocery item prices and bacon prices prior to IARC report release to predict what bacon prices would have been had the report release not occurred. Here is the calculation of actual and counter-factual bacon prices ($/oz) before and after the report release:

After a few weeks of bacon prices remaining above their predicted values, bacon prices ultimately averaged 6.5% lower than what we predict would have occurred had the IARC report not been released.

You can read the whole thing here.