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Have you lost trust in the food system?

The September edition of the monthly food demand survey (FooDS) is now out.  In this post, I want to draw attention to two questions we added this time around which were suggested by my colleague Bailey Norwood.  

We asked a yes/no question: 

Can you think of a time when you felt that you lost trust in the food system?”

The good news that about 60% said "no" but that also means that, unfortunately, about 40%  said "yes."

For those people who said “yes”, we followed up with an open ended question:

Can you describe the exact circumstances that led to the loss in trust in the food system?

413 people typed responses.  I had a lot of fun reading through all the responses and trying to make sense of them. The first thing I did a simple keyword search.  

Below is the frequency of occurrence of different keywords among the responses, which I placed into different categories.

Some of the main keywords mentioned were:  GMOs (24), Mad Cow (24), recall (23), e coli (22), and price (20).  When you add the word "genetic" to "GMO" these two combined got a total of 34 mentions, by far the highest.  Biotechnology seems to be a big contributor to lost of trust in the food system.  That said (and as will be see momentarily), I think most of the statements people typed had something to do with food safety issues.  Here is the count of the number of times different words were mentioned.

Companies or Organizations

FDA (13), McDonalds (9), Monsanto (5), government (3), USDA (2) 

Technology Related Issues

GMO (24), hormone (26), pink slime (16), chemical (13), pesticide (11), genetic (10), antibiotic (9), clone (3), drug (3) 

Food Safety Related Issues

mad cow (24), recall (23), e coli (22), outbreak (18), salmonella (16), sick (15), food poisoning (13), illness (12), swine flu (6) bird flue (4) 

Miscellaneous issues

price (20), news (11), cost (10), documentary (6), China (6), Food inc (5), TV (3) 

Types of food

chicken (22), meat (17), beef (15) vegetable (15), lettuce (11), fruit (11), pork (4), spinach (4) cantalope (2), tomato (1)  

In addition to simply counting word mentions, I read each response and placed each one into one of eight different categories.

Below are the general categories, with the number of comments in the category, and a few representative responses.  I did not correct typos in respondents' answers.

Food Safety Related Issues (113 responses)

"during outbreak of e. coli"
"Hearing about diseases like bird flue and mad cow.  Tainted meat and produce."
"recently-yet another recall of bagged lettuce"
"The ecoli outbreak from a Taco Bell has made me think more of cooking at home and not eating out."

Technology Related Issues (74 responses) 

"hearing all the talk on tv about gmo foods."
"finding out about antibiotics and growth hormone use in livestock"
"When I learned that genetically engineered foods did not have to be labeled as such.  I felt very betrayed by by the food industry and the FDA."
"I used to buy ground beef but when I heard pink slim I stop buying it"

Issues related to food prices, market power or manipulation, or regulatory malfeasance (50 responses)

“I've never reallly had any trust in the food sys. I feel that the gov't and certain officals have a vested stake in the food industry and therefore can't be trusted to make decisions in the best interest of American citzens.”
“$6/lbs for bacon this is out of control”
“McDonalds food and realizing Monsanto owns EVERYTHING”
“The cost of staples like rice, flour and cooking oil. These items should be much cheaper to buy in bulk than they currently are. It's disappointing.”

Personal experience (mostly stories of food poisoning) (34 responses)

“I got food poisoning from a Mexican restaurant”
“My husband and I went out to eat at a restaurant, and the chicken he ate ended up being bad. He got food poisioning and was in the ER overnight with vomitting and dirrahea constantly. It was the worst thing ever!”
“found some hair in canned food”
“Had a blizzard and our grocery store had empty shelves after one day. Scary”

Animal Welfare Issues (25 responses)

“About 40 years ago when i visited cattle and chicken farms,  I was shocked at how the animals were treated and the filthy conditions that they lived under.  haven't eatent meat since. 
“Especially hate the way they raise chickens.”
“When I found out the actual  conditions of factory farms.”

General media (15 responses)

“I saw the documentary called "Food, Inc."”
 “I saw the movie, I forget what it is called, but it showed the farm process and the uncleanliness of the system. It made me lose hope in all the farms across the U.S. and question them.”
 “an article in the media”

Health or Nutritional Issues (10 responses)

“Food that is healthy and safe is more expensive than food that is unhealthy and questionable so those who are stuck on a budget have to eat sodium packed food low in nutrients for a cheaper meal i.e. ramen, hamburger helper etc.”
 “Nothing really tasted right as the time nor was anything really healthy.”
 “when i was overweight despite of healthy eating habits”

Other Issues (or all issues) (39 responses)

 “Introduction of too many chemicals, preservatives, hormones, GMOs, etc., increased introduction of fast foods, fewer organic fruits & veggies at most grocery stores. Inflation and increasing costs of organic & fresh whole foods. I never eat beef, seldom eat pork”
“When I heard about chicken coming from china.”
“the recent odd sizes of chicken parts. never seen small parts big parts, thought chickens grew the same size. don't trust red meat at all.”
“The love In making the food is gone they dnt make food with love anymore”
 “watched the documentary: food inc. or something like that. Just showed of how genetically modified food was used in the production of food.  /  / Also the documentary about McDonalds. It is a little old, but still the same thing applies. I have since cut fast food to a minimum...  “
“Also when farmers or workers in the farm are not paid what they deserve”
 “When I found out that horse meat was being substituted for beef in some cases.”

Interesting or curious responses

 “i read how they use chemical to breed their animals.”
 “When I first heard about the brain found in the chicken at KFC”
 “Finding out that I am 25 years old, perfectly healthy, but (highly likely) due to the GMO's in foods I had been eating, I am infertile.”
 “My dad became severely allergic to chicken, so we only purchased "organic" chicken.  Some places claim being organic, but he was still affected by it! Only from local, organic places did we find chicken that didn't cause him to break out into hives”
 “When the local stores stopped buying locally.”
 “when i heard kfc was making chickens without beacks”

Effect of GMOs in the Developing World

To hear many anti-GMO activists talk, one would think farmers are merely whims of greedy agribusinesses.  They have no power or choice to deny Monsanto.  In the developing world, we hear such outlandish assertions as GMOs causing suicide (see this paper for a thorough debunking of that claim).

The truth is that farmers adopted GMOs because they thought it would make them money, save them time, and improve their health and that of the environment.  Yes, Monsanto has made some money along the way, but farmers have benefited too (so too have consumers I might add).   

For the latest evidence on that front, I ran across this research by Kousesr and Qaim in the journal Agricultural Economics.  Here's the abstract:

Data from a farm survey and choice experiment are used to value the benefits of Bt cotton in Pakistan. Unlike previous research on the economic impacts of Bt, which mostly concentrated on financial benefits in terms of gross margins, we also quantify and monetize health and environmental benefits associated with technology adoption. Due to lower chemical pesticide use on Bt cotton plots, there are significant health advantages in terms of fewer incidents of acute pesticide poisoning, and environmental advantages in terms of higher farmland biodiversity and lower soil and groundwater contamination. Farmers themselves value these positive effects at US$ 79 per acre, of which half is attributable to health and the other half to environmental improvements. Adding average gross margin gains of US$ 204 results in aggregate benefits of US$ 283 per acre, or US$ 1.8 billion for the total Bt cotton area in Pakistan.

 

Drink more water?

According to one article, Michelle Obama has come out with a new campaign to solve our nation's health problems: 

I’ve come to realize that if we were going to take just one step to make ourselves and our families healthier, probably the single best thing we could do is to simply drink more water,” Obama said in a press release. “That’s it – it’s really that simple. Drink just one more glass of water a day and you can make a real difference for your health, your energy, and the way you feel.

This really stains credibility.  The "single best thing" to make yourself healthier is definitely NOT drinking more water.  There is no good scientific evidence that drinking more water has any effect at all on health. 

Why do women tend to earn less than men?

A Facebook friend linked to this Georgetown paper showing the earnings of people with a terminal BS in different college majors.  Looking through some of the tables, I was struck by how big a difference there was between the share of women vs. men in different college majors.  I was reminded of a point made by my friend Matt Rousu, who has done some analysis showing that choice of college major went a long way toward explaining the often-discussed gap between the pay of men and women.

So, I cobbled together some data from the Georgetown paper, looking specifically at the most popular college majors.  Here is the table I pulled together: 

earnings.JPG

Among the most popular majors, those with a major in computer science earn the most (the median is $75,000 per year).  Interestingly, however, only 22% of computer scientists are women.  By, contrast, the lowest-earning major (among the most popular majors) is elementary education at $40,000, and a whopping 91% of elementary education majors are female.

A simple correlation between % female and median earnings is -0.76.  There is strong evidence that women are choosing majors (or if you want to think conspiratorially, are being keep out of majors)  that have relatively higher earnings.  If I use the numbers above to do a back-of-the-envelope calculation, I figure that for the average man and women in this sample of popular majors, there will be a "gender gap" in median wage of about $5,640 (or a roughly 10% earnings discount for women) that is completely explained by differences in the choice of major.  

There has been research attributing the "gender gap" to factors like discrimination, differences in time off for child care, differences in willingness to negotiate, etc., but I think it is also safe to say that choice of major matters a great deal. 

So choose wisely. 

I might add that one can do a lot worse than majoring in agricultural economics.  We are in the top 10 majors in terms of employment, with a 94% full employment rate and a 98% employment rate; see tables 39 and 41 in the report), and BS graduates have a median income of $60,000.  However, only 18% of our graduates are women and 90% of graduates are white.  So, help improve diversity in our profession, find some great professors and topics, AND make a little more money.  Choose Ag Econ!   

Are US Farmers More or Less Productive Than They Once Were?

That's the question asked in this recently published paper by authors at the USDA Economic Research service appearing in the journal Applied Economics Perspectives and Policy.  They find: 

Our empirical results show that two types of structural change have occurred since WWII, and both have influenced the U.S. agricultural productivity. First, we identified a break in trend in 1974. Prior to 1974, productivity grew at an average annual rate of 1.71%, but this rate slowed to 1.56% per year after 1974. The break in trend coincided with the 1973 oil embargo, which resulted in a rapid and unexpected rise in energy prices.

and

A different type of structural change occurred in 1985 when we observed an upward intercept shift for the level of productivity. This may have been due to a number of factors including a U.S. economic recovery, and a liberalization of farm policy since the mid-1980s. The 1.56% annual trend rate of growth persisted after the 1985 breakpoint.

Farmers are getting more productive, just not as fast as they once were.