Beliefs about Beef vs. Plant-Based, Cell-Cultured, and Lab Grown Alternatives

The July 2023 edition of the Consumer Food Insights survey is now out. I want to draw attention to one set of questions we added that delved into consumers’ beliefs about beef vs. plant-based, cell-cultured, and lab grown alternatives. Each respondent was only asked one set of these questions. Cell-cultured and lab-grown refer to the same thing, but we were curious if the the alternative labeling produced a different set of beliefs.

By and large, respondents have positive perceptions of beef. Animal welfare is the only characteristic which consumers rated more positively than beef. The specific wording on this item was “Animal Welfare (if consuming the product improves overall animal well-being in the country).” Interestingly, “cell cultured” was not substantively different than “lab grown”; the later actually produced more positive views on the alternative in some dimensions such as environment and animal welfare. I say “interesting” because the start-ups seem to prefer “cell cultured” over “lab grown.”

This is the last edition of Consumer Food Insights I will be directly leading. I look forward to see the excellent work continue from the team at the Center for Food Demand Analysis.

Research Reports on Soy-based Food Demand

With the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability (CFDAS) at Purdue, we’ve been working on a project funded by the United Soybean Board and the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research to explore the impacts of various investment alternatives on soy farmer profitability. To undertake the economic modeling, we need to understand consumer demand for a variety of soy-based foods, and the extent to which consumers are willing to substitute between soy-based foods and other products.

We’ve now released three short research reports on consumer demand for:

• dairy, almond, oat, and soy-based “milks” (with Miyeon Son)

• soy, corn, olive, and canola cooking oils (with Miyeon Son)

• meat and meat-alternatives (by Glynn Tonsor and Justin Bina)

There is a lot of interesting material in each report. For example, here are a couple graphs showing trends in the milk and milk-alternative markets. The big story here is the rise of oat milk, which has cut into sales of other milk-alternatives.

Another interesting finding from the meat and meat-alternatives paper that is consistent with prior research is the low degree of substitutability between conventional meats and the new meat alternatives. In fact, the estimates suggest chicken is a weak complement with (rather than a substitute to) meat alternatives.

Some Career News

I’m excited to announce that I will serve as the next Vice President and Dean of the Division of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources at Oklahoma State University, beginning early August.

It has been an honor and privilege to serve as the head of the Agricultural Economics Department at Purdue University, and I will miss my friends and colleagues in West Lafayette. Now it’s time for a new challenge.

There are many exciting things happening at Oklahoma State University, including the near completion of the New Frontiers campaign and building, a new University strategic plan that has clear emphasis on agriculture and the Land Grant mission, and the opportunity to work with the faculty and staff to identify some key strategic opportunities to raise the impact of the Division.

I can’t promise a lot of blog output in the coming months, but I will be looking for opportunities to highlight the excellent work at Oklahoma State and to ensure the Division is actively engaged in important conversations around food, agriculture, environment, and natural resources.

Consumer Food Insights - May 2023

The May 2023 edition of our monthly Consumer Food Insights survey is now out.

A few highlights:

• Consumer food spending is at its highest level since our survey began in January 2022.

• Food insecurity ticked up to 16%.

• There has been a decline in the length of time individuals report being on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) (conditional on being in the program)

• Some good news: we continue to see a steady decline in the share of consumers who report not being able to find items they wish to buy at the grocery store. That is, reported stock-out rates are declining.

• We compared the spending and buying behavior of households who spend more vs. less on food on a per-person basis.

There’s a lot more in the report.

Alternative Protein Sources: Balancing Food Innovation, Sustainability, Nutrition, and Health

That’s the title of a new publication from the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine summarizing the outcomes from a workshop on alternative proteins. I served on the planning committee and gave a talk about the market prospects for alternative proteins.

The report (pages 23-30) summarizes my talk. Here are a couple excerpts from my portion:

“Jayson Lusk, Purdue University, explored the socioeconomic impacts of increasing the intake of alternative proteins. He began with an overview of the economics of protein production in the United States, including agricultural land use, the current agricultural economy, farmers’ attitudes toward various protein sources, consumer purchasing habits and preferences, and market trends for alternative proteins. He explained that most dietary protein consumed in the United States is derived from animal sources, with poultry and meat as the top sources, followed by bread products, milk, cheese, eggs, plant-based protein foods, and seafood (Pasiakos et al., 2015). When the data are aggregated by animal, dairy, or plant-based sources, more than 80 percent of U.S. protein consumption comes from animal and dairy foods (Phillips et al., 2015). Lusk noted that protein quality varies, and statistics based solely on grams of protein consumed do not account for quality. ”

and

“Sales of plant-based meat alternatives constitute some level of substitution for animal proteins, as well as an expansion of the protein market, Lusk explained. Using an economic model that links retail consumption to cattle production, he examined how a shift in demand toward plant-based
meat alternatives—namely those created by processing a combination of ingredients such as soy, wheat, and pea, with novel additive ingredients such as heme (as opposed to less processed products such as tofu and tempeh)—could affect meat production (Lusk et al., 2022). Currently, he reported, these effects are fairly small. As an example, he observed that a 10 percent decrease in the price of plant-based meat alternatives is projected to create only a 0.15 percent decline in the number of cattle raised in the United States. As contributing factors he pointed to the small size of existing estimates across price elasticities of demand and the relatively inelastic nature of the U.S. cattle supply, which does not directly compete for land use with other forms of agriculture. ”

There is a lot more in the report, which summarizes a wide range of perspectives on alternative proteins.